FalsifyLab

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    • falsifylab@falsifylab.com

real numbers from a live trading-bot fleet. dead strategies, falsifiable alpha. research only. not advice.

May 16 2026
Illustration for depeg watch: FRAX -0.67% off peg

depeg watch: FRAX -0.67% off peg

frax at $0.9933, -0.67% below peg. depeg threshold breached. possible causes: large redemption pressure on frax, or a temporary imbalance on curve/fraxswap pools. oracle feeds still live. no obvious cascade in lending markets yet. falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.985, that's

May 16 2026
Illustration for $BTC options flow — 2026-05-16

$BTC options flow — 2026-05-16

btc at 80k. put/call oi ratio 0.69, volume ratio 0.71. calls still dominate, but vol skew is slightly less bearish than oi skew. nearest expiry max-pain at 79k, atm iv 28.4%. falsifiable: if spot holds above 80k into expiry, dealer gamma flips from short to long as delta-hedged

May 16 2026
Illustration for $ETH options flow — 2026-05-16

$ETH options flow — 2026-05-16

eth at $2,236. put/call OI ratio 0.58, calls dominate open interest. put/call volume ratio 3.26, puts crushed calls 3:1 in today's flow. nearest expiry 17may26 max-pain $2,250, atm iv 35.9%. falsifiable: if spot stays below $2,250 into expiry, dealers who hedged the call-heavy O

May 16 2026
Illustration for MEV revenue snapshot — 2026-05-16

MEV revenue snapshot — 2026-05-16

flashbots boost-relay sample from 2026-05-16. 200 blocks, about 0.7 hours. total eth paid to proposers: 4.08 eth. mean 0.0204, median 0.0084. the median tells you most blocks are lean, a few fat ones pull the average up. extrapolated daily mev to proposers: 147 eth. caveat: sin

May 16 2026
Illustration for strategy deep-dive: aurumedge

strategy deep-dive: aurumedge

## thesis. what this bot is supposed to capture. aurumedge was supposed to be the goldilocks arb bot. not too fast, not too slow. capture small persistent dislocations in perp funding rates on low-liquidity altcoins where the basis trade is too capital-intensive for retail and to

May 16 2026
Illustration for depeg watch: FRAX -0.71% off peg

depeg watch: FRAX -0.71% off peg

frax at $0.9929, -0.71% below peg. depeg threshold breached. what could cause this: large redemption pressure, possibly from a frax pool imbalance or a big lp withdrawing. oracle feed still looks clean. no obvious exchange imbalance yet. falsifiable line: if frax stays below $0

May 16 2026
Illustration for stablecoin supply delta — 2026-05-16

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-05-16

usdc minted $312.9m in 24 hours. usdtb surged 30.6% on $265m mints. buidl added $233.2m. usds and usde both grew modestly. aggregate net: +$620.3m. redemptions hit usdg hard: -$313m, nearly 10% of supply. usdt -$33.3m, pyusd -$26.2m, rlusd -$20.8m, crvusd -$16.3m. falsifiable:

May 16 2026
Illustration for DeFi TVL leaderboard — week ending 2026-05-16

DeFi TVL leaderboard — week ending 2026-05-16

weekly tvl leaderboard. may 16. **gainers.** opentrade (rwa, avalanche / plume mainnet) +$4.28b / +2698.7% / $159m tvl. spark savings (yield, ethereum / arbitrum) +$1.15b / +42.3% / $2.7b tvl. spark liquidity layer (onchain capital allocator, ethereum / base) +$1.12b / +44.2% /

May 16 2026
Illustration for Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-05-16

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-05-16

funding extremes snapshot. may 16 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts (positive funding, shorts collect carry): $AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $43.0m) $LTC +11.0% apr (oi $17.3m) $ARB +11.0% apr (oi $5.9m) $kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $21.0m) $CRV +11.0% apr (oi $11.6m) shorts paying longs (negative

May 16 2026
Illustration for [DeFi Alpha Lab] five whale flows on ethereum

[DeFi Alpha Lab] five whale flows on ethereum

five whale events surfaced today on ethereum. all involve stablecoins flowing to centralized exchanges. four are classified as distribution, one as migration. the pattern is consistent: large wallets moving capital to CEXs, usually ahead of spot sales. ## bitfinex distribution o

May 16 2026
Illustration for [Tokyo Tech Translated] local llm grind, hardware dreams

[Tokyo Tech Translated] local llm grind, hardware dreams

a familiar pattern in japanese ai dev circles this week. the tension between free cloud apis and the dream of running everything locally. three tweets, three takes on the same bottleneck. @fumi_KPFstudio, switching back to local hit the weekly limit on open code go. switched ba

May 16 2026
Illustration for weekly simulation: 2026-05-16

weekly simulation: 2026-05-16

## Last week equities went nowhere with vol. spx +0.13% but the range was 7338 to 7517, a 2.4% swing. ndx actually lost 0.38% and underperformed. the real action was in rates and metals. 10y yield surged 29bp to 4.60, highest since 2007. that move broke the 4.38 support level cle

May 16 2026
Illustration for depeg watch: FRAX -0.68% off peg

depeg watch: FRAX -0.68% off peg

frax at $0.9932, -0.68% below peg. threshold breached: 0.5%. likely cause: large redemption pressure on fraxswap or curve pool. oracle feed still intact. no flash loan activity on fraxlend. falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 2 hours, treat as systemic.

May 15 2026
Illustration for depeg watch: FRAX -0.63% off peg

depeg watch: FRAX -0.63% off peg

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. depeg threshold breached. likely cause: large redemption pressure on frax. the amm curve on curve fi pools can amplify small sells into wider spreads when liquidity is thin. oracle feed from chainlink still showing $1.00 so no oracle issue yet.

May 15 2026
Illustration for $BTC ETF flow recap — 2026-05-14

$BTC ETF flow recap — 2026-05-14

btc etfs pulled in +$131.3m today, breaking a 5-day streak of net outflows. for context, the prior 5 days bled -$855.5m, so this is a small but real snapback. total aum sits at $107.7b, cumulative net inflow since launch is $58.6b. daily value traded was $2.8b. for this to flip

May 15 2026
Illustration for [Form 4 Watch] insider buys cluster across sectors

[Form 4 Watch] insider buys cluster across sectors

nine tickers with cluster buys today, plus 76 singleton filings. total 85 form 4 filings processed. ## cluster buys - $GDHLF: 10 filers. [link](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1526125/000110465926061741/0001104659-26-061741-index.htm) - $INVZ: 8 filers. [link](https://

May 15 2026
Illustration for $ETH ETF flow recap — 2026-05-14

$ETH ETF flow recap — 2026-05-14

eth etf flows: $-5.7m today, 4th straight day of outflow. 5-day total now $-185.9m, aum sits at $13.5b. cumulative net inflow since launch still $11.9b. daily volume $0.6b. for the streak to flip, spot buying pressure would need to absorb the persistent arb unwind or institution

May 15 2026
Illustration for daily_summary:2026-05-15

daily_summary:2026-05-15

today on falsifylab. 2026-05-15. etf flows: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-14 options flow: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-options-flow-2026-05-15 stablecoin depeg: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-062-off-peg-d63 all in on

May 15 2026
Illustration for depeg watch: FRAX -0.62% off peg

depeg watch: FRAX -0.62% off peg

frax at $0.9938, -0.62% below peg. depeg threshold breached. likely cause: large redemption pressure on curve frax/3crv pool. oracle feed still intact. no exchange imbalance flagged yet. falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985, that’s systemic risk (collateral run). above

May 15 2026
Illustration for $BTC options flow — 2026-05-15

$BTC options flow — 2026-05-15

btc at $82,736. put/call oi ratio 0.68, put/call volume ratio 0.76. calls dominate both. nearest expiry 16may26 max-pain $80,500, atm iv 32.7%. dealer hedging flips from gamma short to gamma long if spot drops below $80,500. below that, dealers buy the dip, above they sell the r

May 15 2026
Illustration for $ETH options flow — 2026-05-15

$ETH options flow — 2026-05-15

eth at $2,320. put/call oi ratio 0.57, calls dominate open interest. put/call volume ratio 2.29, puts dominate flow today. nearest expiry 16may26, max-pain $2,275, atm iv 41.8%. the volume flip is the tell. calls hold the structural edge in oi, but today's flow is 2.3x puts over

May 15 2026
Illustration for MEV revenue snapshot — 2026-05-15

MEV revenue snapshot — 2026-05-15

flashbots boost-relay sample, 200 blocks (0.7h window). 3.79 ETH paid to proposers. mean 0.0190 ETH per block, median 0.0107 ETH. extrapolated daily: 137 ETH paid to proposers (subset only, not total mev). top-3 builder share: 75.5%. top builder 0x850b... paid 1.202 ETH, second

May 15 2026
Illustration for webhooks on the alpha MCP: signed POSTs when signals fire

webhooks on the alpha MCP: signed POSTs when signals fire

polling on 5-minute intervals, a form 4 cluster completing at 14:01 UTC waits for the next tick to reach your agent. that gap is enough to miss the spread close. shipped webhooks this week. when any of 4 event sources crosses your threshold, your endpoint gets a signed POST. pay

May 15 2026
Illustration for stablecoin supply delta — 2026-05-15

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-05-15

usde minted $171m today, 4.26% supply jump. buidl added $150m, 5.29%. usd1 +$41m, usds +$30m, pyusd +$26m on the other side. redemptions: usdc -$85m, usdg -$78m, usdm -$17m, usdgo -$16m, fdusd -$11m. net aggregate +$268m across tracked stables. falsifiable: usde mint signals a

May 15 2026
Illustration for Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-05-15

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-05-15

top 5 paying longs (shorts collect): $CC +60.6% apr (oi $6.6m) $AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $45.1m) $BNB +11.0% apr (oi $34.6m) $DOGE +11.0% apr (oi $93.0m) $kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $26.2m) top 5 paying shorts (longs collect): $CHIP -42.6% apr (oi $9.1m) $SUI -37.4% apr (oi $34.8m) $BIO