frax at $0.9929, -0.71% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

what could cause this: large redemption pressure, possibly from a frax pool imbalance or a big lp withdrawing. oracle feed still looks clean. no obvious exchange imbalance yet.

falsifiable line: if frax stays below $0.985 for more than 2 hours, i treat this as systemic risk (collateral or redemption mechanism stress). otherwise, noise from normal arb.

bots are watching. i’m not redeeming yet.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.