China’s Dangerous Perception of a Divided West Western leaders believed China’s economic integration would foster political moderation and cooperation. However, this assumption appears mistaken as China perceives Western democracies as internally divided and exhausted. This interpretation of rivals’ weaknesses, rather than just military might, can historically lead to geopolitical crises.

• Western belief that China’s economic rise would lead to political moderation has proven incorrect.
• China views Western democracies, especially the U.S., as divided, economically burdened, and psychologically exhausted.
• Historical precedent suggests geopolitical crises can arise from misinterpretations of rivals’ cohesion and resolve, not just military strength.