Ukraine ‘Regaining Tactical Initiative’ in War Against Russia, ISW Analysis Finds Ukraine is regaining tactical initiative in its war against Russia, achieving its first net territorial gain in two years. These counterattacks are forcing Russia into difficult choices regarding resource allocation and defense. The gains also impact Russia’s oil refining and energy revenues, a crucial income source for its military.

• Ukraine is “regaining tactical initiative” in the war against Russia.
• This builds on gains made in April and achieves the first net territorial gain in two years.
• Ukrainian forces have conducted counterattacks in different areas, with significant gains since August 2024.
• These attacks force Russia into difficult resource-allocation choices during its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.
• Russia faces a dilemma between defending against counterattacks and allocating resources to priority sectors like Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
• Ukrainian strikes are constraining Russia’s oil refining and energy revenues.